Alberta's Pacific Pivot:
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith made headlines this week by floating a new energy export contingency, which has the remarkable tenor of viability: if domestic hurdles block a new pipeline through British Columbia, she's open to routing Alberta oil southward through Montana, Idaho, and into Washington or Oregon ports for export to Asia.
While her first choice remains a Canadian route—bolstered by a recent MOU with Prime Minister Mark Carney—the U.S. Northwest option is practically favorable, considering the infrastructure capacity of Americans. It's a savvy business play that could transform economics for Alberta and Saskatchewan petroleum producers in a way they may not be able to expedite within Canada.
The Pacific Northwest Opportunity
The U.S. PNW already integrates deeply with Canadian supply and has proven appetite for more. Washington's five refineries (total ~650,000 bpd capacity) process significant volumes of Alberta heavy oil and dilbit—refineries like BP's Cherry Point (the region's largest at ~225-250k bpd), Phillips 66 in Ferndale, and others in Anacortes are configured with coking units ideal for heavy feeds.
Since the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) came online in May 2024, tanker deliveries of Canadian crude to Washington spiked dramatically: 21 large Aframax tankers arrived between late May and December 2024 alone (vs. just 1-5 per year pre-expansion). Canadian barrels became the leading waterborne supplier to these refineries in mid-2024, displacing Latin American imports and demonstrating clear demand for discounted Alberta heavy.
Aframax Tankers (Canadian Crude to WA Refineries)
Pre-TMX annual avg: ███░░░░░░░░░ ( ~3 )
Post-TMX (7 months): █████████████████████ ( 21 )
~7x spike in just half a year—PNW demand is real.
Existing rights-of-way, potential reuse of legacy infrastructure, and targeted expansions (far cheaper than greenfield elsewhere) make this a pragmatic "plug-and-play" path—leveraging what's already working rather than starting from scratch.
Why Bitumen is a High-Value Gem
Alberta's oil sands bitumen isn't just fuel—it's a versatile, high-value resource. Diluted for pipeline transport (dilbit), it feeds refineries producing diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel. But, as McColl Magazine Daily contributing editor Mack McColl highlights, the real upside lies in its array of secondary manufacturing applications: superior asphalt binders for longer-lasting roads, emerging carbon fibre for lightweight automotive, aerospace, and wind turbine parts, advanced composites, and even recoverable critical metals like vanadium for battery technology.
The Bitumen Beyond Combustion (BBC) initiative
This initiative is now evolving into Bitumen Advanced Materials led by Alberta Innovates is driving this shift. By diverting the heavy asphaltene-rich fraction (15-20% of the barrel) from combustion fuels into durable non-fuel products, BBC avoids downstream emissions while dramatically boosting economics. Alberta Innovates estimates this approach can increase the value of each barrel by up to 133%, with potential annual revenues jumping from $18 billion (at traditional uses) to $42 billion for 1 million bpd processed into advanced materials like premium asphalt, carbon fibre, and energy carbons.
Programs like the Carbon Fibre Grand Challenge are accelerating pilots, with new facilities in Edmonton set to produce lower-cost, lower-emission carbon fibre from bitumen. Tidewater access—potentially via the PNW—is the key to scaling this vision, opening Indo-Pacific markets hungry for heavy crude and its high-value derivatives.
For producers, this means:
Higher Netbacks: Escaping WCS discounts for Brent-linked Asian prices ($10–20+/barrel premium).
Diversification: Reducing reliance on the U.S. market amid shifting policies.
Value-Add Potential: Supplying refineries optimized for complex crudes and feeding global secondary manufacturing demand.
Risks remain
The environmental reviews, Indigenous consultations, and tanker traffic concerns—are not insignificant, except the U.S. has shown momentum in building energy infrastructure. Premier Smith’s comments add valuable negotiating leverage for a B.C. route while spotlighting a realistic Plan B. She has fostered U.S. connections with the Governors of Montana, Idaho, and Washington.
The Albertans want people to imagine a near future where Alberta bitumen powers not just engines, but the lightweight frames of electric vehicles, the blades of massive wind turbines, and the batteries that store renewable energy—all while flowing reliably to tidewater through pragmatic North American partnerships. Unlocking the full Bitumen Beyond Combustion chain could multiply barrel value by up to 133%, create thousands of high-tech jobs, and position Western Canada as an indispensable supplier of sustainable advanced materials in a net-zero world.
Will Ottawa and the provinces seize this opportunity with a bold Canadian corridor—or will Washington state step in first and capture the prize? The clock is ticking.
What do you think—Canadian route only, or time for deeper North American collaboration?
Written By Grok with direction and modifications by Mack McColl, editor, McColl Magazine Daily -- where the sparks fly daily
