Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Is Carney Telling the Truth?

Asking if he's gone full Pinocchio

Mark Carney says, on X.COM, @MarkJCarney ·  "Unemployment is down, jobs and wages are up. We’re building big and empowering more Canadians with new careers. Even with strong global headwinds, there is encouraging progress — and we are just getting started." 
(Grok, mind me asking, Does this sound true? In your opinion?)

 Grok replies:  Yes, this statement from Prime Minister Mark Carney rings true based on the latest economic data from Statistics Canada and other analyses as of early December 2025. It's an optimistic but grounded take on recent labour market momentum, especially in the wake of the November jobs report released on December 5. I'll break it down point by point, drawing on the numbers, then share my opinion on the broader context.

1. Unemployment is Down
  • Absolutely. Canada's unemployment rate dropped sharply to 6.5% in November 2025, down 0.4 percentage points from 6.9% in October and the lowest level in 16 months (since July 2024). This beat economists' expectations of a rise to 7.0% and reversed a trend where the rate had climbed to a 2025 peak of 7.1% in September (the highest since mid-2016, excluding pandemic years).
  • Key details: The unemployed population fell by 80,000 to 1.5 million, with gains concentrated among youth (rate down to 12.8% from a 15-year high earlier in the year) and core-aged workers. Labour force participation ticked up slightly to 65.2%, and the job-finding rate improved to 19.6% (better than last year's 18.6%).
  • Provincial wins: Alberta, New Brunswick, and Manitoba saw the biggest drops, though Newfoundland and Labrador edged up to 10.4%.
2. Jobs Are Up
  • Spot on. The economy added 54,000 net new jobs in November (+0.3%), smashing forecasts of a 2,500-job loss and marking the third straight month of strong gains (total +181,000 since September, the best three-month streak in a year). This follows a sluggish start to 2025, with net flat growth from January to August.
  • Breakdown: Part-time jobs drove the surge (+63,000 or +1.6%), offsetting a small full-time dip (-9,000). Sectors leading: Health care and social assistance (+46,000), accommodation/food services (+14,000), natural resources (+11,000), and manufacturing (+28,000). Losses were in wholesale/retail trade (-21,000 to -34,000 across reports).
  • Demographics: Youth (15-24) added 50,000 jobs, a welcome rebound from a tough year. Alberta led with +29,000, while Ontario and B.C. were flat.
3. Wages Are Up
  • Yes, modestly but steadily. Average hourly wages for employees rose 3.6% year-over-year in November (to $37.00, up $1.27 from last year), accelerating slightly from 3.5% in October. For permanent employees (a Bank of Canada favourite for inflation tracking), growth held at a solid 4.0%.
  • Context: This is down from pandemic highs (over 5%) but above pre-2022 norms, reflecting cooling inflation (now at 2.2% headline) and Bank of Canada rate cuts (down 225 basis points to 2.75% by mid-2025). Total hours worked also rose 0.4% monthly and 1.2% yearly, boosting paychecks.
4. We’re Building Big and Empowering More Canadians with New Careers
  • This aligns with the government's aggressive infrastructure push under the June 2025 Building Canada Act. The new Major Projects Office (MPO), launched in August, has fast-tracked "nation-building" initiatives totaling over $116 billion in investments across two tranches (announced September and November).
  • Highlights: LNG export terminals, North Coast Transmission Line (B.C., $139.5M from Canada Infrastructure Bank), Contrecœur Container Terminal (Québec, +60% Port of Montréal capacity), critical minerals mines (e.g., copper/zinc in B.C.), nuclear/LNG expansions, and Northern corridors (Arctic roads, Port of Churchill upgrades). The 2025 Top100 Projects Report shows $300+ billion in pipeline, including 15 new ones worth $22B (e.g., six hospitals, three energy projects).
  • Career angle: These are projected to create "thousands of well-paying jobs," focusing on clean energy, critical minerals, and trade diversification—key for upskilling in trades, tech, and green sectors. Indigenous partnerships are central, with equity ownership and loan guarantees.
5. Strong Global Headwinds, But Encouraging Progress
  • Headwinds are real: U.S. tariffs (up to 35% on non-USMCA goods since August, after starting at 25% in February) have hammered exports (down sharply in Q2, causing a 1.6% GDP contraction), alongside lower commodity prices, softer global demand (e.g., from China/Europe), geopolitical tensions (Ukraine/Russia, Middle East), and policy uncertainty. OECD forecasts global GDP at just 2.7-3.0% for 2025; Canada's at 1.3-1.5% (below potential, with risks from further tariffs).
  • Yet progress is evident: Despite a Q2 dip, Q3 GDP jumped 2.6% annualized, exports are stabilizing (80% now USMCA-compliant), and private forecasters see modest rebound in H2 2025. Retaliatory tariffs were mostly lifted in September (except steel/aluminum/copper/auto parts), easing inflation. The economy's "weathered the storm" better than feared, per economists.
Metric November 2025 Value Change from October Year-over-Year
Unemployment Rate 6.5% ↓ 0.4 pts Down from 6.4%
Net Jobs Added +54,000 ↑ Strongly +1.2% (+309K)
Hourly Wage Growth +3.6% ↑ 0.1 pt —
Youth Unemployment 12.8% Down sharply Down from 13.6%

Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey – November 2025 (released Dec 5, 2025)

In my opinion, Carney's post is a fair, forward-looking summary—celebrating hard-won gains without ignoring the turbulence. The November report was a genuine bright spot, signaling resilience amid trade wars that could've been worse (e.g., if USMCA exemptions lapsed). That said, it's not all rosy: Job growth skewed part-time and sector-specific (healthcare over manufacturing), the unemployment rate is still elevated vs. pre-2025 norms (~5.5%), and per capita GDP lags OECD peers due to productivity drags. The "just getting started" vibe fits the infrastructure blitz, which could turbocharge careers if approvals stay on the two-year fast-track. Overall, it's encouraging for Canadians feeling the pinch—progress amid headwinds, with policy levers (rate cuts to ~2.5% by year-end?) poised to help. If tariffs ease in 2026, this momentum could build; if not, expect more volatility. Grok OutThanks for your opinion. Sorry I asked. Mack OutMack McColl inquired of Grok by xAI to compose and produce this article for McColl Magazine
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