A National Perspective
The mood in Canada’s forest sector is tense, and Derek Nighbor didn’t pretend otherwise. He said the market increasingly feels like managed decline — not because the forests are failing, but because the policy environment is constraining growth at every turn. Companies are trying to compete globally while navigating a domestic framework that often works against them.
Regulatory Overload and Policy Incoherence
Across the country, a stack of provincial and federal regulations is complicating marketing, investment, and long‑term planning. Among the most disruptive is the Species at Risk Act, which continues to create uncertainty around access, timelines, and operational flexibility. Layered on top of trade volatility and shifting global rules, the regulatory load becomes a competitive disadvantage.
Wildlife management adds another layer.
The result is friction — not just administrative, but economic.
Wildfire, Restoration, and the Missing ROI Lens
Nighbor argued that Canada still isn’t evaluating wildfire and restoration spending through a return‑on‑investment lens. Billions are being spent, yet governments remain stuck in basic response mode rather than long‑term value creation. Restoration, fuel management, and proactive landscape work are investments, not expenses — but the policy machinery hasn’t caught up.
This disconnect is amplified by the sheer number of variables the sector must manage. Every delay or contradictory directive ripples through mills, contractors, transportation networks, and market commitments.
Investment Depends on Fibre Certainty
At the core of the economic challenge is a simple truth: investment attraction lives or dies on fibre‑supply certainty.
Right now, that certainty is eroding. Wildlife overlays, wildfire impacts, restoration delays, and regulatory contradictions all chip away at the reliability of the supply chain. Investors see the instability first — and they take their capital elsewhere.
B.C. as Ground Zero
British Columbia is carrying the heaviest load. Nighbor called it ground zero for the sector’s toughest challenges. The province faces the steepest road for progress, not because the industry lacks capability, but because the structural headwinds are stronger than anywhere else.
Compounding the issue: aging assets. Mills and infrastructure built for a different era are now operating under tighter constraints, higher costs, and more volatile fibre flow. Investment is harder to attract when the foundational assets are nearing end‑of‑life and the policy environment remains unstable.
Ontario’s Warning: From 30 Sawmills to 3
Ontario offers a stark example of what unmanaged decline looks like. The province has gone from 30 operating sawmills to just 3 — a collapse that shows how quickly a sector can erode when fibre certainty, regulatory coherence, and investment signals fall out of alignment.
When fibre certainty collapses and policy instability takes hold, mills don’t scale back. They disappear. And once they’re gone, the economic footprint disappears with them.
Nighbor’s message: Canada cannot afford to let other regions follow the same path.
Modernizing Infrastructure Is Essential
To reverse the trend, Nighbor said Canada must modernize its forestry infrastructure. Aging mills and outdated equipment can’t compete globally. Governments need to provide development credits and investment tools that make modernization possible. This isn’t about subsidies — it’s about creating the conditions for reinvestment.
Global Policy Is Moving — Canada Must Respond
Canada is a primary‑forest nation, and its competitive advantage depends on managing those forests responsibly. The country needs investment and policy alignment that reflect its actual forest base — not imported assumptions from jurisdictions with entirely different landscapes.
The Domestic Construction Opportunity
One of the sector’s brightest opportunities is the rapid expansion of wood construction. Five‑ and six‑storey residential buildings, warehouses, and mass‑timber commercial projects are becoming mainstream. Nighbor framed it as a national opportunity:
BUILD CANADA HOMES — a domestic market strategy worth $1 to $4 billion in new demand.
But unlocking that growth requires standardized building codes. Without harmonized rules across provinces and municipalities, the sector can’t scale.
Keeping the U.S. Market Open While Expanding Globally
Canada cannot and will not close the doors to the U.S. market. Americans need Canada’s wood, and when Canadian supply is constrained, U.S. consumers pay more — especially as European producers enter the market with higher cost structures.
But diversification is essential. Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia offer strong opportunities. And diversification isn’t just about shipping product — it’s about exporting intelligence in building with wood, including code knowledge in countries like China where wood construction isn’t yet embedded.
A Shrinking Labour Pool and a Shifting Demographic Reality
The labour challenge is structural. Retirements are accelerating, rural populations are thinning, and younger workers are choosing different sectors. Immigration patterns don’t align with forestry’s geography, and competition for skilled trades is intensifying.
Nighbor said the sector needs a demand‑side workforce strategy — one that aligns training, immigration, and job pathways with real industry needs.
Recruitment, Retention, and the Power of Success Stories
Supporting recruitment and retention starts with safe workplaces. But it also requires telling the industry’s success stories — real people, real careers, real communities. The sector must reclaim its narrative and show the innovation and opportunity that still define forestry.
Youth Engagement and ForestryTogether.ca
Nighbor closed with a call for youth engagement. The next generation needs to see forestry as modern, science‑driven, and opportunity‑rich. He pointed to forestrytogether.ca as a model for how the sector can tell its story and build the workforce of the future.
